the system is starting to turn around after the losses last week, it was still a losing week but a small one. the bad thing tho’ is that i didn’t managed to get the ARange 2 and 3 off the ground, they still have some small bugs in the code…and i realize that this version i’m forward testing now is in need of some stricter money management to reduce the risks and to protect some of the winners.
hopefully all this will be done by 1’st february so that i’ll have a clean start.
not exactly a profitable week, the system is definetly not a money machine yet..but the forward test goes on.
the second version i had tested appears to have some code flaws so i’ll need to recode it and fix the problems.
Gross Profit: 1 012.30 Gross Loss: 1 040.66 Total Net Profit: -28.36
Profit Factor: 0.97 Expected Payoff: -0.31
Absolute Drawdown: 28.36 Maximal Drawdown (%): 67.88 (5.0%)
Total Trades: 92
Short Positions (won %):49 (57.14%) Long Positions (won %):43 (69.77%)
Profit Trades (% of total):58 (63.04%) Loss trades (% of total):34 (36.96%)
Largest profit trade: 62.45 loss trade: -85.25
Average profit trade: 17.45 loss trade: -30.61
Maximum consecutive wins ($):12 (271.48) consecutive losses($): 5 (-181.26)
Maximal consecutive profit (count):271.48(12)consecutive loss (count):-181.26(5)
Average consecutive wins: 3 consecutive losses: 2
the mt4 experts are going as good as expected in a trending market, for a system that is based on ranging 
have decided to call the expert “ARange” and starting with this week i’ll have two versions to forward test, and by next week the third should be up and running aswell.
on a sidenote, the manual trading isn’t going well with very few trades. hopefully after i’ve finished with the experts i can/will focus on getting back on top of things.
awesome post on TraderParadise blog, you definetly should check it out.
the second week of January’s forward demo testing is over with some bad results, down 151$ from the profits of last week… most of the losses occured wednsday and thursday with 4 SL hits and a number of smaller profits.
overall with the 1000$ account trading 0.1 lots the max drawdown is small around 5%, but in theory several weeks of losses can amount to a higher drawdown, we’ll see that in time.
starting next week i’ll start another forward demo test with some revised rules and hopefully some more complex money management rules, if i have time to code them.
with that in mind i still have faith in this system, not to would be a foolish thing coz the system is still over 20% in profit; i noticed that i tend not to give a name to my systems, and i’m certainly gone put a stop to this and start with this one; thing is i haven’t decided on a name yet so i’m open to sugestions..:)
Click here for a screnshot of the week’s statement
Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 0.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: -151.59 Floating P/L: 0.00 Margin: 0.00
Balance: 1 132.33 Equity: 1 132.33 Free Margin: 1 132.33
Details:
Gross Profit: 320.18 Gross Loss: 471.77 Total Net Profit: -151.59
Profit Factor: 0.68 Expected Payoff: -4.46
Absolute Drawdown: 155.12 Maximal Drawdown (%): 67.88 (5.0%)
Total Trades: 34
Short Positions (won %): 22 (45.45%) Long Positions (won %): 12 (66.67%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 18 (52.94%) Loss trades (% of total): 16 (47.06%)
Largest profit trade: 54.54 loss trade: -85.25
Average profit trade: 17.79 loss trade: -29.49
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 4 (95.64) consecutive losses ($): 5 (-181.26)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 95.64 (4) consecutive loss (count): -181.26 (5)
Average consecutive wins: 3 consecutive losses: 2
Click here for a screnshot of the statement for the hole period
Today and yesterday haven’t been good for my automated expert, who profits from the small ranges the crosses ussually have… so days like yesterday with one way movements followed by today’s rather strong reversal, have done a little damage to my account. but i guess it’s all part of the testing period, you want to have some bad days with stop-loss hits so that you can observe and perhaps improve in the future.
will post more details when the week is over.
today was my first day of trading in 2006, but unffortunatelly i didn’t get any clear signal during the day so no trades… there is always another day
local TV stations keep reporting that Channel 4 in the UK did a study of real estate potential in 20 european countrys, most of them EU members and also Romania and Cyprus, soon to be members, and guess what Romania came up on first place with a potential growth rate of over 400% in 10 years, followed by Poland and Portugal. my opinion is that 400% will be small potatoes, you can get that inside a year, although profit margins will decrease in time, there are still vast regions of the country where no real investments have been made and have much need for all kinds of infrastructure, and with infrastructure in place all new sort of investments are possible…
here’s the link to the article
had this expert running 16 to 18 hours a day on average(06GMT-00GMT), i’ll keep posting the updates
Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 0.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 360.16 Floating P/L: 0.00 Margin: 0.00
Balance: 1 283.92 Equity: 1 283.92 Free Margin: 1 283.92
Details:
Gross Profit: 465.38 Gross Loss: 105.22 Total Net Profit: 360.16
Profit Factor: 4.42 Expected Payoff: 12.42
Absolute Drawdown: 0.00 Maximal Drawdown (%): 58.81 (5.8%)
Total Trades: 29 Short Positions (won %):15 (86.67%)
Long Positions (won %): 14 (78.57%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 24 (82.76%) Loss trades (% of total): 5 (17.24%)
Largest profit trade: 62.45 loss trade: -58.81
Average profit trade: 19.39 loss trade: -21.04
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 12 (271.48) consecutive losses ($): 2 (-16.32)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 271.48 (12) consecutive loss (count): -58.81 (1)
Average consecutive wins: 5 consecutive losses: 1
Decided to move the blog here at wordpress due to the more interesting space and options available..
Later Edit: On second thought the space isn’t that great..having difficulties copy-paste(ing) a table…
The results are based on the last 106 trades generated by my system..
I got the idea to test different money management rules from some discussions I’ve read through most of the FX forums around; and it’s all about knowing when to increase the risk per trade, lot sizes etc;
One of the things that made me choose Oanda as my broker is that it allows a flexible position sizing, you can trade any number of units from 1 unit to 25 mil. Taking advantage of that I’ve tested various formulas and this is what I’ve come up with.
The darker line is the evolution of NAV, when the next trades size is determined by adding/subtracting half of the “%” increase in NAV of the last trade. I followed -~chaffcombe’s model but scale it down to a trade by trade, rather than day by day.
The pink line on the chart is a “classical” MM model, that increases the lot sizes when the account grows, according with my systems stop/loss requirements I started with risking 0.5% per/trade and increasing the risk by another 0.5% when the account has gotten to a predetermined level…. (on second thought this is not exactly classical).
The yellow line is the results of increasing the percentage risked per trade by half of the previous trades gain/loss as % NAV, also this started by risking 0.5% on the first trade;
For example if the last trade made 1.5% NAV in profit’s, the next trades risk will be 0.5%+ 0.5*1.5%= 1.25% …it is a rather aggressive model, and still under tests.
Risking the same fixed percentage on every trade proved to be the method that helped the less with compounding so i did not put it on the chart, nor considered to use it myself.
